OUR SUMMARY
This week promises high market activity, driven by the US presidential election and anticipated rate decisions from the Fed, BoE, and RBA. The dollar has seen notable strength in October, largely due to market positioning for a Trump win. However, a recent Des Moines Register poll shows Harris leading in a key battleground, prompting some investors to reconsider their USD positions.
The Fed and BoE are expected to announce 25 bps rate cuts, yet forward guidance will be key. The BoE, in particular, may respond to last week’s UK budget details or remain focused on domestic data. The RBA, in contrast, is forecasted to hold rates steady, which could keep AUD in a relatively stable range.
If Harris claims victory, markets may see a swift USD retreat, while a clear Republican win could prolong dollar strength.
