OUR SUMMARY
A busy week is ahead with key economic data releases across major regions. In the US, all eyes are on jobs data with JOLTS, ADP, and nonfarm payroll reports on the agenda, alongside ISM manufacturing figures, core PCE inflation, and Q3 GDP estimates. The USD has been strong recently, fueled by both election positioning and signs the market may have mispriced Fed rate cuts. If data hints the Federal Reserve could hold off on cutting rates, USD could extend its gains.
In Europe, Q3 GDP estimates are expected mid-week, followed by October’s CPI figures. Weak data could heighten the likelihood of a 50bps rate cut in December, increasing pressure on the EUR.
Meanwhile, the UK’s Autumn budget on Wednesday is a major focus. Sweeping tax increases are anticipated to fund government spending. If the measures align with the UK’s growth outlook and leave Bank of England rate policy unchanged, GBP might hold steady. However, any loss of confidence in the plans could spark downside risks for GBP, especially given market caution after past fiscal disruptions.
